2010 Total Solar Eclipse Path and Weather

The track of the total solar eclipse first falls upon the earth's surface in a remote area of the South Pacific Ocean, some 1,000 miles north-east of New Zealand. The path of the eclipse then tracks north-east, through the Cook Islands, into French Polynesia, passing just south of Tahiti and into the Tuamotu Islands. As the eclipse path starts to arc in a southerly direction, it passes directly over Easter Island, before it reaches its final stages in the southern extremities of Argentina.

Our Eclipse Observation Point

(Image: Total Solar Eclipse path of 2010 July 11, F. Espenak & J. Anderson)

Tahiti is the largest island of French Polynesia and while not directly in the path of the eclipse, makes a useful and very beautiful base for our expedition. The path itself passes to the south east of Tahiti and on eclipse day, we will be taking our private chartered plane east to our observation point in the remote Tuamotu Islands.

The Tuamotu Islands are an archipelago of 76 islands and atolls (ring-shaped islands formed of coral which surrounds a central lagoon). We have selected Hao as our observation point, a small atoll of just 40 miles in length and well within the path of totality. It is an unbeatable setting, with palm-fringed beaches lapped by the azure waters of the central lagoon. This will be an observation site far from the madding crowds.

We will be ready at our observation point at dawn on July 11 2010 for first contact to take place around 7.30am, with totality occurring a little over an hour later.

Predicted Weather Conditions along the Path

(Image: Mean cloud amount in percent along the eclipse track 2010 July 11, F. Espenak & J. Anderson)

For all its logistical challenges, the 2010 eclipse presents simpler weather conditions than those for the China eclipse of 2009. The single most important factor in choosing an observation point is maximising the chances of getting clear skies.

Tahiti offers by far the best chance of clear weather conditions along the eclipse path, with historic data suggesting around a 45% chance of cloud cover. In reality, we are in the heart of Tahiti's dry season which runs from April to October and July itself is one of the driest and sunniest months of the year, so we should have reason to feel optimistic about our chances, certainly more so than in 2009.

However, we must also remember that we are in the tropical south-Pacific where storms, squalls or scattered cloud could all impact our chances. Nonetheless, this positive weather track record was our primary reason for selecting Tahiti as our base.

Is Tahiti the Best Viewing Point on Earth?

The 2010 eclipse path is unusual in that it makes landfall in just four locations. The first is the Cook Islands and the last is Patagonia, neither of which are particularly practical.

The two real contenders are French Polynesia (Tahiti) and Easter Island. Both are fascinating places to visit, but it's the weather that really makes the decision on which is the better observation point. Have a look at these historic meteorological data for the two observation points in July:

(Sources: F. Espenak & J. Anderson, weather2travel.com)

Tahiti offers an excellent chance of clear observation conditions – July is in the heart of Tahiti's dry season and is one of the driest months of the year, with a good chance of clear skies for our observation.

Easter Island is a very different matter – July is winter in the southern hemisphere and being much further from the equator than Tahiti means it's cooler, less sunny, with more cloud and rain. While as a sub-tropical island, none of these factors is extreme, combined, they present a much poorer chance of clear eclipse-observation conditions.

So, the stats confirm it – Tahiti and Tuamotu Islands are the clear winner!

What about viewing from the Ocean?

Particularly for the 2010 eclipse, the majority of eclipse chasers will have to observe from a boat or ship. For those simply interested in seeing the spectacle of the eclipse, then observing from a boat, particularly a larger one, will be an exciting experience. For those wanting great photography, or to carry out measurements, then observation from land is unbeatable. Added to which, for some extra adventure, the land on which we will be watching will be one of the most remote tropical islands on the planet.